Microbial risk assessment
9 important questions on Microbial risk assessment
What ways of gathering data for your risk assessment are there?
- Relevant hazards
- Severity of disease
- Common habits
- Estimation of probability
Quantitative
- find figures from ‘farm to fork
What needs to be done for hazard identification?
- organisms prevalent in raw material
- organisms present in production/storage environment
Epidemiology:
- foodborne diseases associated with this type of food
What do you need to take into account with hazard characterization?
- How sick will you be?
- Dose-response relationship
- Age, health, etc.
- Vulnerable groups
- Type of food
- Virulence (giftigheid) of micro-organism
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What do you need to take into account with exposure assessment?
What doe you need to tack into account with risk characterization?
- Integrate exposure and effect
- Determine risk estimate, variability and uncertainty
- Often expressed as “Relative Risk” or as “costs”, this is done because the date becomes to general to say somehting about it. So you need to translate it in order to use it.
What is the difference between deterministic and probabilistic modeling?
- Point estimate with attendant uncertainties
- e.g. P = 6.4 x 10-8
- Valid for single value e.g. “worst case” or “mean ” , gives a limiting view
II) Probabilistic
- Includes variability
- Valid over whole range of situations
What is the new codex definition of risk communication?
Consider risk assessment, polixy and values. Define and implement policies.
What is the reason for variability and Uncertainty?
Uncertainty: due to lack of data (improved if you take more samples)
For what is the use of risk assessment important?
- for consumers
- for risk managers
- for international trade (you can only refuse if you can prove it is a risk)
Risk ranking=> allocate resources (foccus on the thing that is needed)
Product development => What to expect from new product?
Show the effect of various processing options => critical control points
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