Demand management
8 important questions on Demand management
Crm plays a major role in operations efficiency and customer service through
- fast an accurate order entry and tracking
- meeting promised delivery dates and quantities
- handling customer inquires and service complaints, returns and repairs
- accurate and timely shipping documentation, invoicing and recording of sales history
Independent versus dependent demand
dependent demand should not be forecasted; it should be calculated
Stable versus dynamic demand
dynamic demand tends to be erratic
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Qualitative techniques for forecasting
- are based on intuition and informed opinion
- tend to be subjective
- are used for business planning and forecasting for new products
- are used for medium- term and lon term forecasting
Quantitative techniques: extrensic
- is based on correlation and causality
- relies on external indicators
- is usefull in forecasting total company demand or demand for families of products
- has two types of leading indicators:
- economic
- demografic
Moving average: lessons learned
- the moving average forecast will make the development of a rising or falling trend lag
- the farther back the moving average forecast reaches data, the greater the lag
- the three month moving average forecast may have overreacted if the demand surge had abated
- the moving average works best when demand is stable with random variation; it will filter out random variation
Exponential smoothing logic
- take the old forecast and the actual demand for the latest or most current period
- assign a weighting factor or smoothing constant tot the latest period versus the old forecast
- calculate the weightedand the lastest demand
- formule: new forecast = (a) x latest deamnd + 1-a x old forecast
Seasonal forecast process
- Develop a seasonal forecast for each period of the year being forecasted
- develop a deseasonalized demand forecast spanning all periods
- calculate a seasonal index of demand for each period to establish seasonality
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