Human impact: Socio-hydrology
6 important questions on Human impact: Socio-hydrology
Min 22: the pendula swing
after 80s: people moved to downward direction of the river basin or out of the basin completely
What is historical socio-hydrology and ....?
- Coupled human-water-agricultural systems from ancient civilizations and played around
- Data availability: climate, harvest, agricultural data, etc.
- Changes in climate or overshoot lead to collapse of civilizations
Maya () and Roman case (virtual water trade)
What is the central Q and 3 failure mechanisms in comparative socio-hydrology
Srinivasan et al: Found key similarities within systems that lead to collapse -
3 characteristic failure mechanisms:
- Unsustainability: overexploitation for irrigation/DW/etc
- Vulnerability: climate variability (eg extremes)
- Chronic scarcity: nothing there anymore...
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Link the correct graph to the correct type of comparative socio-hydrology
How to model socio-hydrological approaches
- conceptual models (closer to traditional hydrogeological models, couple equations that you force with data)
- Toy models: previous slide, investigate what is happening/play around
- Conceputal models: mimic existing systems, e.g. Maya systems or roman empire
- Agent based modeling
- Probabilistic human decision-making (putting sense of intuition into probabilistic model, where agent is precip, people, water, etc)
- Reacts to other agents and.... (see sldie)
New data and smart modeling are used to model socio-hydrologically. Explain new data and smart modeling and give an example of Tim's reserach on both?
- Need for unconventional data, e.g.
- Crop production, global food prices
- Population and demographics
- Norms and values, policy (e.g. Historical records such as dams, interventions)
- Smart modeling: see min 78
New data example: analyzed newspapers for expression of 'env awareness': using language analyses tools to construct quantitative metric. See again min 77 maybee (not highly necessary).
Smart modeling: predicting the ungauged basin. Min 86: Model was validated based on local information. ...
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