Friday - Aetiological vs prognostic modelling
8 important questions on Friday - Aetiological vs prognostic modelling
What are 4 types of epidemiologic studies?
2. Diagnostic - what disease suits the symptoms of the patient
3. Prognosis - what is the expected future course of the disease in the patient
4. Intervention - can this treatment influence the course of the disease
Is confounding an issue in prognosis research?
How can you use the results of a prediction model?
- create awareness
- increase compliance
- promote life-style changes
(results of prediction models should never be used for causality!)
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What are 'valkuilen' of prediction studies?
In prognostic research there are two types of validation, which two?
2) External validation - evaluate how well the model predicts in an external (new) set of patients
What are examples of internal validation precedures?
- split-sample validation (randomly divide dataset in two parts, develop model for part 1 and determine quality with part 2)
- cross-validation (same as above but now in more parts
What are examples of external validation procedures?
- geographic validatoin - dataset with patients from a different hospital/other location
- completely independent validation = new researchers, different patient population, variable definitions may be slightly different
How to assess quality of model?
- discrimination = how well can the model distinguish between individuals with and without disease
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