Risk Theory
24 important questions on Risk Theory
Different sources of risk in food production
- Production or operational risks
- Price or market risk
- Institutional risk
- Human or personal risks
- Financial risk
Production or operation risk:
Price or market risk:
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What are 7 steps of risk management?
- Establish context
- Identify important risky decision problems
- Structure problem
- Analyse options and consequences
- Evaluate and decide
- Implement and manage
- Monitor and review
What happens in step 1. Establish context ?
- What are the stake holder of my business
- Who in the business is responsible for which category of risk
What happens in step 2. Identify and rank risk
- Make list of all possible risk
- Rank the risk
- Identify the main risk
What happens in step 3. Structure problem ?
- Who faces risk
- Who suffer if things go wrong
- What are the cause
- How is risk management
- What are the other options
- Who decides
Step. 4 Analyse options and consequences
Risk= Probability * Effect
Step 6. Implement and Manage
Smal business: easy vs big business: difficult
What happens in step 7. Monitor and review?
- Maintain/update the risk management plan as needed
- If choices were made under imperfect information some options may be unsatisfactory
- Are the further decisions to be made
- Is there new information available
What are measure the reduce risk ?
- HACCP
- Certification
- Tracking & tracing system
- education of personnel
- Goog equipment
- Etc.
What information does economics add to risk assessment?
- More information than only technical information
- Ranking of the alternatives
- Marginal costs of benefits of one extra level of food safety
- Distribution of cost and benefits of er the chain
What are conditions to risk to be insurable ?
- There must be large number of exposure units
- Loss must be accidental and determinable
- Loss should not be catastrophic
- The probability of loss must be calculable
- The premiums must be economically feasible
What are the two insurance to food safety problems ?
- Product liability insurance
- Product recall insurance
What are product liability insurance ?
- Protects from claims related to manufactured or sold food (or other goods) to the public
- Covers the manufacture or seller liability for losse or injured to buyer
What is product recall insurance?
- Provides protection if you must recall a product
- Cover product recall expense and liability to third parties seeking damages because your product recall could cause a loss of income or dagje their reputation
What is precautionary principle?
Designed to ensure that the absence of scientific certainty isn’t use a reason of postponing actions that could procent people and environment when there’s a credible threat os serious or irreversible harm
Max-min approach: choose the alternative that maximise the minimum (effect) outcome.
What 3 types of probability ?
- A Priori probability: known outcome. -ex. ROgling a dice, roulette wheel
- Statistical probability: observed frequencies used to predict outcomes
- Estimated probability (uncertainty) - most common, demands judgement
What is the expected utility theory?
What is subjective expected utility theory ?
- Optimal choice base on comparison of the exported Ulithi or the risky choice vs the ‘certainty’ equivalent
- These are methods to represent this ‘risk attitude’ in economic analysis
What is objective risk ?
- Estigmata form historical observation of frequency and consequence
- Assuming we are able to predict the future
What is subjective risk ?
- Risk concerns thoughts and beliefs
- Level of perceived risk is a subjective risk judgement
What is impact of risk perception ?
- Societal acceptance/tolerance of various hazards activities
- Influences food safety behaviours of individuals
What is risk homeostasis?
- Better brakes on cars lead to faster driving
- Better hygiene in slaughterhouse make people take risks at home
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