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A snapshot of the summary - Judgment in managerial decision making
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1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making
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1.1 The Anatomy of Deciscion
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To what refers the term Judgment?
To the cognitive aspects of the decion making process
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Bias 1: Ease of Recall? (Простота воспоминаний)
Sometimes a new memory can make people think that is a true answer. Because it seems more actual. Many of decisions based on viviness (яркость)
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Bias 2: Retrievability (востанавливаемость), based on memory structure?
Associations.
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1.2 System 1 and System 2 Thinking
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By what system are most decisions made?
System 1 thinking
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What illustrate fives biases?
The systematic irrationalities that can occur in our judgements when we are unaware of this tendency.
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In most situations, System 1 thinking is sufficient
but System 2 logic should preferably influence our most important decisions
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1.2.1 Bias 3: Insensitivity to Base rates
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Bias 3: Insensivity to base rates (Нечувствительность к базовой оценке)?
People make decision by basing on the descriptions and details, but ingore a main base or information
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1.2.2 Bias 4: Insensitivity to Sample size
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Bias 4: Insesnsitivity to Sample size (Не чусвтвительность к оценке размера) ?
People forget to pay attention size of sample.
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1.2.3 Bias 5: Misconceptions of Chance
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Bias 5: Misconception of Chance (заблуждение)?
When people are wrong about what can happened, 50 %
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1.2.4 Bias 6: Regression to the mean
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Bias 6: Regression to the mean (Регрессия к среднему)?
Expectations; If you do something good, there is no guaranty that you will do the same result again.
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