Summary Judgment in managerial decision making

A snapshot of the summary - Judgment in managerial decision making Author: Max H Bazerman, Don A Moore ISBN: 9780470049457

• 1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making

• 1.1 The Anatomy of Deciscion

• To what refers the term Judgment?

  To the cognitive aspects of the decion making process

• Bias 1: Ease of Recall? (Простота воспоминаний)

  Sometimes a new memory can make people think that is a true answer. Because it seems more actual. Many of decisions based on viviness (яркость)

• Bias 2: Retrievability (востанавливаемость), based on memory structure?

  Associations.

• 1.2 System 1 and System 2 Thinking

• By what system are most decisions made?

  System 1 thinking

• What illustrate fives biases?

  The systematic irrationalities that can occur in our judgements when we are unaware of this tendency.  

• In most situations, System 1 thinking is sufficient

  but System 2 logic should preferably influence our most important decisions

   

• 1.2.1 Bias 3: Insensitivity to Base rates

• Bias 3: Insensivity to base rates (Нечувствительность к базовой оценке)?

  People make decision by basing on the descriptions and details, but ingore a main base or information 

• 1.2.2 Bias 4: Insensitivity to Sample size

• Bias 4: Insesnsitivity to Sample size (Не чусвтвительность к оценке размера) ?

  People forget to pay attention size of sample.

• 1.2.3 Bias 5: Misconceptions of Chance

• Bias 5: Misconception of Chance (заблуждение)?

  When people are wrong about what can happened, 50 %

• 1.2.4 Bias 6: Regression to the mean

• Bias 6: Regression to the mean (Регрессия к среднему)?

  Expectations; If you do something good, there is no guaranty that you will do the same result again.