Harz et al. (2021): Virtual Reality in New Product Development: Insights from Pre-launch Sales Forecasting for Durables
17 important questions on Harz et al. (2021): Virtual Reality in New Product Development: Insights from Pre-launch Sales Forecasting for Durables
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What is examined in the paper by Harz et al. (2021) / goal of the research?
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Which two research questions are key in the article by Harz et al. (2021)?
- RQ1: (How) does VR improve prelaunch sales forecasting?
- RQ2: Why do VR simulations (vs traditional studio tests with real products) lead to advantages in forecasting?
How is RQ1 (how does VR improve prelaunch sales forecasting) tested and what is the result?
- This was tested in two field studies
How is RQ2 (why do VR simulations lead to advantages in forecasting) tested and what is the result?
The findings reveal that the forecasting advantages of VR emerged because VR participants on average behaved more consistently in terms of their information search, preferences, and purchase behavior than the studio test participants
These results can be explained by increased presence and vividness
Which two key features has the developed pre-launch sales forecasting approach?
- VR
- Extended macro-flow model
What is visualization capability?
Why has VR a higher vizualisation capability then previous multimedia approaches or studio tests used for prelaunch forecasting?
- High simulation scope (simulation of all facets of purchase journeys)
- High similarity to reality
- High immersion (diepgang) of consumers
What is automated tracking capability and why is it valuable?
- By integrating behavioural data as inputs, forecasting accuracy might increase
What are the two main categories of VR simulations?
- Lab VR: Requires data gathering and additional equipment for viewing and interacting with simulated environment
- Online VR: Displayed on computer, always and everywhere accesible, no additional equipment needed
- Online VR simulate less senses and provide less intuitive interaction possibilities
In which kind of capability does lab VR and online VR differ the most and in which are they the similar?
- Very similar in terms of their automated tracking capability
- Both can achieve similarly high levels of simulation scope and interactivity
- But differ with respect to their visualization capability
- lab VR is likely to create more immersive and realistic environment
What does macro-flow models do and in what respect do they differ from alternative models?
Alternative models either do not allow for prediction over time or applied prior of the launch
Of which three elements does the macro-flow model exist?
- Behavioral states
- Attitudes and actions through which consumers flow in their purchase journey
- Flows between the behavioral states
- The proportion of consumers transitioning from one behavioral state to another
- Deteminants of these flows
- The independent variables that drive the flows between the behavioral states
What is the approximation (%) of the forecasting advantage attributed to VR?
What are the 4 main contributions of the paper by Harz et al. (2021)?
- The development of forecasting models for new durables that are applied close to launch
- Offering a new VR forecasting approach, extending previous macro-flow models in 3 ways
- Advancing the literature by providing additional insights into why forecasting advantages occur
- Offering the first systematic marketing study of virtual reality in NPD
What are the three categories of managerial implications of the research by Harz et al. (2021)?
- Application fields of VR for NPD,
- Visualization mode selection
- Guidance for implementing VR for NPD
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