Political Economy of Conflict Transformation
30 important questions on Political Economy of Conflict Transformation
Throughout history, economic factors have played a central role in warfare.
Until recently, the economic dimensions of civil wars have received little policy attention let alone scholarly assessment.
- When did this change?
- This has changed since the mid 1990s.
A main impetus for this new vector of research (into the economics behind warfare) has been the increased acknowledgement among analysts and policymakers that many civil wars have become increasingly self-financing in nature.
- Define the change in geopolitics that fuelled the self-financing of wars.
- The decline in superpower support in the post-Cold War years.
Both rebels and governments have sought alternative sources of revenue to sustain their military campaigns.
In addition to the traditional means of pillage and plunder, other self-financing resources became important.
- Define three other resources that have become popular:
- Trade in lucrative natural resources.
- Diaspora remittances.
- The capture of foreign aid.
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- Define five distinctive features of war economies:
- They involve the destruction of the formal economy and the growth of informal and black markets.
- Pillage, predation, extortion, and deliberate violence against civilians is used by combatants to acquire control over lucrative assets.
- War economies are highly decentralised and privatised.
- Combatants increasingly rely on the licit or illicit exploitation of/trade-in lucrative natural resources.
- They thrive on cross-border trading networks, regional kin and ethnic groups, arms traffickers and mercenaries, as well as legally operating commercial entities, each of which may have a vested interest in the continuation of conflict and instability.
- From what perspective can interstate conflicts improve the understanding of the key dynamics of many of today's civil wars?
- Political economy perspective.
Far from being irrational or dysfunctional, violence and instability often serve a range of political, social, and economic functions for individuals.
Continuation of economics by other means.
- What theory is described above?
- Rational actor/choice theory.
Conflict management.
First generation peacebuilding activities.
- Define the three characteristics of conflict management:
- End wars through diplomatic efforts.
- Focuses on top leaders.
- Short term management of the conflict.
Conflict resolution.
Second generation peacebuilding activities.
- Define the three characteristics of conflict resolution:
- Addressing root causes of conflict with relationship-building.
- Long-term resolution.
- INGOs (dialogue projects, peace education, Conflict Resolution training.
But..
- Building relationships do not always bring an agreement.
- Working with civil society and the grassroots do not automatically spill over to the national level.
Conflict transformation.
Third generation peacebuilding activities.
- Define the five characteristics of conflict transformation:
- A different understanding of Peace Building.
- Deeper and structural.
- Reconciliation potential of society.
- Empower mid-level individuals or groups.
- Focus from international to local leaders.
- Define a combat economy:
- A combat economy is an economy that is based on economic interactions that directly sustain actual combat.
The combat economy serves to fund the war effort of these actors as well as to achieve military objectives.
- Name three actors of the combat economy:
- The security apparatus of the state (military, paramilitary groups, police.
- Rebel groups.
- Domestic and foreign "conflict entrepreneurs" who supply the necessary weapons and military material.
- Define a shadow economy:
- A shadow economy comprises of a broad range of informal economic relationships that fall outside state-regulated frameworks.
- Who are the key actors in a shadow economy?
- Mafias and criminals.
- Who seek to benefit from the business opportunities that open up in highly unregulated and chaotic war situations.
Lootable (non-separatist conflict) and unlootable resources (separatist conflict).
Provide examples of lootable resources:
- Timber.
- Colton.
Are all generally associated with non-separatist insurgencies such as in Sierra Leone, Colombia, and Afghanistan.
Lootable (non-separatist conflict) and unlootable resources (separatist conflict).
- Provides examples of unlootable resources:
- Kimberlite diamonds.
- Deep-shaft minerals.
- Oil.
- Natural gas.
- Why are lootable resources associated with non-separatist conflict?
- Because they are easily exploitable and transportable by small groups of unskilled workers.
As such, they provide easy benefits to whoever controls the resource-rich area but also to the local population whose labour is needed.
- Why are unlootable resources associated with separatist conflict?
- Because:
- Economic and other costs tend to be borne by the communities in the area of exploitation, who are very often culturally or ethnically distinct, and often marginalized groups.
- The exploitation of these resources is technology and skill incentive; the benefits tend to accrue to the central government and foreign companies that provide the capital and technology required for exploitation.
- The existence of resource wealth in one area may be viewed by separatist movement as a viable economic base for an independent state; thus, encouraging armed conflict.
- Perhaps no other work has had more impact on the policy discourse on economic causes of civil war than the:
- Econometric studies by Paul Collier, and his introduction of the "greed or grievance" dichotomy.
- Define the greed thesis of Paul Collier:
- In the greed thesis economic motivations and opportunities are more highly correlated with the onset of conflict than ethnic, socio-economic, or political grievances.
Greed thesis.
Among scholars, there has been growing recognition of the methodological and analytical shortcomings of the greed thesis that render Collier's findings and interpretations problematic.
- Name three shortcomings:
- There is a danger in inferring individual motivations from statistical correlations. The mere fact that the combatants engage in predatory economic activities is seldom a reliable guide to their central dispositions.
- Much of the early research was overly rebel centric. In that neglecting the role of the state.
- The opportunity structure for rebellion does not depend on the availability of resources per see. The weaker the state, the more feasible becomes rebellion.
A stakeholder analysis of the political economy of conflict provides a more nuanced understanding of the functions of conflict that may contribute to more targeted policies and strategies for conflict prevention and resolution.
Every conflict has its own history, dynamics, and stakeholders.
- Those seeking to end wars have to ask several questions. Define those questions:
- Who are the key actors that participate in war economies?
- What motives do they have for their participation in war economies?
- What incentives do they have for peace?
- Who controls the means of violence?
Policy responses are still largely nascent. However, a number of policy mechanisms exist.
- What are broadly speaking the two different flows of policy in war economies?
- The first flow is primarily aimed at curtailing the linkages between the local war economies and the global markets.
- The second flow is concerned with addressing the structural factors of the political economy that characterizes conflict and war-torn countries.
Curtailing and managing resource flows through regional and international "control regimes" has become a central means of conflict resolution for policymakers in the capitals and the UN Security Council.
- What is the foundation for curtailing resource flows?
- If conflicts thrive on trade in conflicts commodities or then curtailing these resource flows may help redirect combatants incentives from war to peace.
The Kimberley Process Diamond Certification regime. To deny "conflict diamonds" access to international markets.
Curtailing linkages between local war economies and the global markets.
Aim: Make peace more profitable than war.
- What are the challenges (name 5) of this policy?
- Difficult to enforce.
- Negative effects on civilians.
- Increased smuggling activities.
- Treating symptoms rather than causes.
- State-centric bias.
DDR Programs.
Disarmament.
Demobilization.
Reintegration.
- What does the DDR program do to disarm?
- DDR is responsible for the collection, documentation, control and disposal of small arms, ammunition, explosives and light and heavy weapons of combatants and often also of the civilian population.
DDR Programs.
Disarmament.
Demobilization.
Reintegration.
- What does the DDR program do to demobilize?
- DDR is responsible for the formal and controlled discharge of active combatants from armed forces or other armed groups.
DDR Programs.
Disarmament.
Demobilization.
Reintegration.
- What does the DDR program do to reintegrate?
- DDR is responsible for the process by which ex-combatants acquire civilian status and gain sustainable employment and income.
Improving Sanctions Enforcement.
Where sanctions were imposed as a means of conflict resolution, governments need to follow-up on reports by the UN Expert Panels and adopt appropriate national legislation to criminalize UN "sanctions-busting".
- The UN Security Council should impose, where applicable..?
- Secondary sanctions, ensure member state compliance with sanctions resolutions, and strengthen the mandates and administrative capacities of UN Expert Panels.
Rethinking DDR.
- Provide an addition to the DDR process:
- Socio-economic support to former combatants needs to be provided early on in the DDR process, taking account also of the different incentives of rand-and-file soldiers and middle-level commanders.
- For policymakers, the lesson is as clear as the challenge is daunting:
- Unless and until war economies are dismantled, the prospects for durable peace remain poor.
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