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• 1 Introduction Scenario Planning as a tool for the strategic conversation

• 1.1 College 1: Context of Scenario Planning

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• Give two examples of short term strategy

  1. Addictions (short term benefits outweigh long term health/survival)

  2. The share holdervalue

• Give two examples of long term strategy

  1. Studying

  2. Healthy food

• Give some advantage of the business strategy?

  1. By investing time and money there you will be better prepared for the crisis: Crisis management

             The revenu in the long term is higher than the cost in the shorter term.

  1. The result of good planning is good learning and memory. Less repeated mistakes --> Institutional learning

• Give three reasons and one example why the importance for a good business strategy rises?

  1. The environment changes faster
  2. Therefore, the future is more and more unpredictable
  3. Fast reactions save money

  Example: Oil industry in the 60s and 70s. Delivery of oil tankers.

  Recent examples: flights, banks, cars.

• What are external scenarios?

  "Possibilities how the future would look like"

  - Mental models of the external world

  - Internal consistent and defiant(=uitdagend)

  - Representing possible futures

  - Wheter they will happen or not is out of sphere of influence

   

• Which two different environments do we have?

  1. Transactional

  2. Contextual

• What is the contextual environment?

  (--> Focus of SP)

  The world of actors over which the strategist has no influence but which he or she needs to appreciate as it effects him or her crucially --> The contextual environment has a significant influence on the business.

• Why are scenarios for the contextual environment and not the transactional environment?

  - Longer term trends

  - Avoidance of the daily issues

  - Stretching mental models, out of the box

• Why can't we weight value judgements about scenarios?

  1. Strategy changes all the time, and is constantly updated
  2. Scenarios are neither good nor bad
  3. For the strategist there is no worst case scenario
  4. The organisation has to be succesful, regardless of the kind of future

• What are the differences between scenarioplanning and other approaches of strategic planning?

  1. Attention for the uncertain business environment
  2. Strategy formulation is seen as a continuous learning process, not as problem optimizing
  3. Strategic planning is not only an issue for staff department, but for the board or better the whole organisation.