Introduction Scenario Planning as a tool for the strategic conversation - Context of Scenario Planning
7 important questions on Introduction Scenario Planning as a tool for the strategic conversation - Context of Scenario Planning
What are the core assumptions of scenario planning?
Core assumptions are:
- more suitable for succesful (believe too much in their success) and failing organisations (believe they will fail no matter what)
- Most suitable for teams which are (too) close (getting variation) and for teams which need teambuilding.
- Either too strict--> Maker more flexible
- Or too flexible--> Make more strict.
What contains the rationalist approach? And which crisis comes with it?
- "Predict and control" (Mintzberg)
- More problem-solving- seeking one answer
- Stating mission and deriving objectives
- Using (quantitative) forecasts, but did use sensitivities in forecasts.
- Probabilistic approach to scenario-based planning
--> Crisis of the Rationalist Approach:
- Are people rational?
- Is everything predictable? NO
What characterises the Evolutionary Approach?
- Strategy "evolves" as internal decisions and external events flow together
- Think that we have no influence on corporate survival, even by developing a strategy.
- The world is too complex to get a firm grip.
- Higher grades + faster learning
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What charaterises the Processual Approach?
- Middle way- firm as a "living organism": a complex adaptive system.
- Managers can intervene in the process, in order to improve the chances of success.
- Business success cannot be codified in form of variance theory, but we can try to make the strategising process more skillful.
- Is keenly interested in internal processes.
What is Institutional Learning?
- When people start aligning their ideas, the firm starts exhibiting institutional behaviour
- People should work together: learn from each other and build a shared experience
What are the contributions of SP on the individual level?
1. Cognitive device
2. Perception device
3. Reflection tool
What are the contributions of SP on the group level?
1. Language provider
2. Conversation facilitation vehicle
3. Vehicle for mental model alignment
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